Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Wow Look at these rotations !

While most baseball prospects pros have targeted the AA NW Arkansas rotation as the best in baseball Dayton Moore hasn't stopped there in loading this system with potential starting pitchers.

Potential Team
Omaha Storm Chasers
Danny Duffy
Everett Teaford
Edgar Osuna
Mario Santiago

NW Arkansas Naturals
Mike Montgomery- BA - If you are talking about fastball-curveball-changeup, Montgomery's stuff grades out the best for his top three pitches.
John Lamb- BA - Few lefthanders can match Lamb's combination of three possible plus pitches and exquisite command.
Chris Dwyer
Aaron Crow
Will Smith

Wilmington Blue Rocks
Jake Odirizzi BA - "Two scouts called him a lesser version of Zack Greinke."
Tim Melville
Tyler Sample

Justin Marks KL - Marks is a solid inventory prospect
Noel Arguelles KL -Arguelles is a physical specimen with a workhorse frame.

Kane County Cougars
Jason Adam KL - "Adam was 92-94 mph with a plus two-plane curveball at 76-77, and most impressive of all was his plus command of both pitches, throwing the curve for quality strikes to both sides of the plate."
Robinson Yambati
Yordano Ventura
KG -" This undersized teenager has plus-plus velocity and impressive command."
Crawford Simmons

That is 17 quality minor league starters with quite a few with solid upside. Even with the usual prospect failures KC should be able to piece together a solid staff of starters from 2012 and on.

KG= Kevin Goldstein checkout his stuff at Baseball Prospectus or on Itunes with his podcast Up and In. www.baseballprospectus.com
KL= Keith Law ESPN.com Insider subscription http://search.espn.go.com/keith-law/
BA= Baseball America www.baseballamerica.com

Breaking down the potential Omaha Storm Chasers roster

Very Likely
Position Players
1b Clint Robinson - 2010 Texas League Triple Crown Winner
2b Johnny Giavotella - Texas Lg All Star .855 AA OPS
3b Mike Moustakas - 15 HR in 52 AAA games
C Manny Pina - 45% Caught Stealing rate at AA
CF Jarrod Dyson - Hit .272 in 46 AAA games also swiped 13 bags in that time
LF David Lough - 2nd Half of AAA Season .865 OPS w/.403 OBP 21/26 BB/SO rate
OF Derrick Robinson - 50 Stolen bases in 2010
OF Paulo Orlando - 2010 had career highs in every offensive category
SP Luis Mendoza - 4.10 ERA in 24 Games (22 starts) for Omaha in 2010
SP Everett Teaford - One of 6 Royals Minor Leaguers on the PanAm Team
SP Edgar Osuna - Lots of struggles in AAA 3.7 HR/9
SP Mario Santiago - Slipped thru the Rule 5 draft
RP Louis Coleman - delay the clock
RP Tim Collins - delay the clock
RP Blaine Hardy - Pitched 67 innings for Omaha with a 3.49 ERA
RP Brandon Sisk - Royal best 2.51 ERA in Arizona Fall League

SS Irving Falu - Escobar trade hurt his chances with Royals longterm
IF Lance Zawadzki - Organization depth
IF Joaquin Arias - Organization depth

1b Eric Hosmer - .977 OPS between AA and A+ 72 extra base hits compared to 59 Ks
SP Danny Duffy - Found new velocity in 2010 reaching 98 mph on some guns
SS Jeff Bianchi - Back from Tommy John surgery
RP Henry Barrera - High strikeout low BB reliever
RP Patrick Keating - Averaged 12.8 K/9 between High A and AA
RP Blake Johnson - 1.40 ERA in Winter Ball 22 IP
RP Jeremy Jeffres - Delay the clock

Strengths- Bullpen- The bullpen should be loaded with skilled and power arms. Tools- whether all the tools will translate or not this will be one of the most skilled set of players to come through Omaha in quite sometime.

Weakness- Youth - These players will get tested against the AAA veterans for the first time.

New Stadium, New Name, New Players, Young talent makes for the most interesting AAA season in Omaha in quite a long time.

Sunday, December 19, 2010

New Top 20, Greinke trade and predicting the 25 man roster.

Rank Player 2011 Start
#1 Wil Myers NW Arkansas
#2 Eric Hosmer Omaha- waivering back and forth between repeating AA or not but ala Lough I think he starts in Omaha after a good spring.
#3 Mike Montgomery NW Arkansas
#4 Mike Moustakas Omaha
#5 John Lamb NW Arkansas
#6 Christian Colon NW Arkansas
#7 Chris Dwyer NW Arkansas
#8 Danny Duffy Omaha
#9 Cheslor Cuthbert Kane County- I'll stand by my love of Cuthbert. Young, built, great approach and made to play baseball.
#10 Jake Odorizzi Wilmington Blue Rocks
#11 Aaron Crow NW Arkansas
#12 Louis Coleman Kansas City
#13 Tim Collins Kansas City
#14 Jeremy Jeffress Omaha
#15 Yordano Ventura Kane County
#16 Robinson Yambati Kane County
#16 Tim Melville Wilmington
#17 Brett Eibner Kane County
#18 Salvador Perez NW Arkansas
#19 Jason Adam Kane County
#20 David Lough Omaha

On the outs#19 Johnny Giavotella Omaha- I've never been as high on Johnny as most but the trade for Escobar really puts a pinch on Giavotella as now he has to compete with Christian Colon at 2b.

The Royals traded their Ace Zack Greinke for four players from the Milwaukee Brewers. This trade has been discussed over and over by much better baseball people than myself so I won't get into it much other than to say of the available trades that were being talked about between the Royals, Blue Jays, Rangers, Nationals, etc. this seems to be the best one available to them.

KC has upgraded the middle of their defense with Alcides Escobar and Lorenzo Cain, added a potential shutdown arm to the bullpen and added to their already loaded list of starters in the minors. Will all the players meet their peak potential? Doubtful but the good thing about this kind of move is that if you find one gem then that player can equal or surpass Greinke's value over a two year span. All in all I like the move because it didn't seem like Zack wanted to be here anymore and Escobar and Cain add to a weakness in the organization while Ordozzi and Jeffress have decent ceilings.

With the additions I see the 25 man roster like this:
1B Billy Butler
DH Kila Ka'aihue
2b Mike Aviles
SS Alcides Escobar
3b Wilson Betemit
LF Alex Gordon
CF Lorenzo Cain
RF Jeff Ugh Franceour
C Brayan Pena
Melky Cabrera
Lucas May
Chris Getz

SP Luke Hochevar
SP Vin Mazzaro
SP Sean O'Sullivan
SP Kyle Davies
SP Bruce Chen- With available money I believe KC will resign him.

RP Dusty Hughes
RP Tim Collins
RP Robinson Tejeda
RP Gil Meche
RP Blake Wood
RP Kanekoa Texeira
RP Louis Coleman
RP Joakim Soria

It will be ugly as I see this team as probably the worst overall in all of baseball unless Escobar and Cain perform above expectations while Billy starts to hit the ball over the fence. It's not about 2011 though and the worst overall record wouldn't hurt all that much just add another piece to the longterm puzzle.