2011 Kansas City Royals Prediction

It's prediction time folks ! As a blogger about the Royals I am obliged to write my prediction of what I think will happen this season so readers can requote me later to tell me what I'm wrong about. So here you go I'm putting my pinky finger on the cutting board with a bucket of ice standing by.



2011 Record 75-87 4th Place

Hitting MVP: Billy Butler .320+ 25 HR 45 2b
Defensive MVP: Alcides Escober
Positional ROY: Mike Moustakas

DH/1b Billy Butler- I believe Butler is in line for his first .900+ OPS season. He's going to prove that the contract extension was a good decision despite splitting time at DH and 1b I think he'll put up a 3.5-4 WAR season. That's not a big improvement in WAR but I think he'll play quite a few games fewer at 1b this season.

1b/DH Kila Ka'aihue- I doubt Kila reaches BP's projections but I do think he'll be better than what KC has seen out of the DH position in the past. Somewhere in that .825-.840 OPS region with 20 HR and better defense than what Billy can provide at 1b. WAR Value 2-2.5

2b Chris Getz- I don't believe in Getz's ability to hit much. I think he'll hit his way out of Kansas City within a couple months posting a sub .600 OPS along the way and making room for Aviles to take over the spot when Moose is ready to come up.

SS Alcides Escobar- Spring training home runs are generally to be ignored but I saw one Escobar hit off the Reds while in Arizona and I came away pretty impressed. It wasn't a windy night or unusually warm but it was a high semi deep home run to left center that a light hitting SS in the TPJ mold wouldn't be able to hit. I'm not expecting Escobar to put up huge offensive numbers in KC but I think he'll put up better numbers than we expect. My guess OPS .750 range with plus plus defense 3-4 WAR.

3B Mike Aviles- Aviles will do what he does hit above .300 and mix in a little pop while moving to 2b when Moose is ready to go. OPS .800 range

Mike Moustakas- I think Mike will get off to a slow start but adjust and hit 10-15 HR's and get people excited for next season. Many in the prospect field are scared of Mike's patience which they should be but what most like is his strength combined with a flat plane swing that stays in the zone a long time that will allow him to hit for a decent average (.275-.300) and also allows him to hit any type of pitch once he's adjusted after seeing it. OPS .775 Range.

Wilson Betemit .750 OPS very limited playing time with Kila and Butler playing well.

Rookies to play this season: Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer(Sept.), Lance Zawadzki(Util when Getz goes down) and Johnny Giavotella(Sept.)

C Jason Kendall/Matt Treanor - More of the same out of the catching position for the Royals. Kendall and Treanor's performance will probably be interchangeable and will play too much and while putting up a sub .600 OPS.

C Brayan Pena - Pena would like the Royals to signa a longterm deal but that's not coming with Salvador on the way. Pena will struggle again at the plate and behind it as he gets sporadic playing time.

LF Alex Gordon- This is the tough one, I've watched Alex for a long time and he's got all the skill in his body to get it done but I don't think he has what it take confidencewise to as he put it "dominate". I think he'll put up numbers similar to what he did as a rookie .725 OPS range with average defense.

CF Melky Cabrerra- I think GMDM is hoping to have Melky get out of the gates fast start so they can flip him similarly to what they did with Scott Podsednik when Lorenzo Cain is ready to go. We'll see how it plays out but I think he'll play below average defense in CF while hitting in the .740 OPS range.

RF Jeff Franceour- Every Non-Royal fan rejoiced at the signing of Frenchy the day it happened and they will be treated to exactly what most expect of him a subpar performance. .700 OPS Range with 15 HRs and better defense than he has played the last couple years due to being leaner.

Lorenzo Cain- Cain will take over for Melky after the trading deadline and provide a similar OPS to Melky but with plus defense.
Mitch Maier .700 OPS Range
Jarrod Dyson .680 OPS range

Rookies to play: Lorenzo Cain, David Lough(Sept)
WAR Leaders
Escobar 4
Butler 3.5-4
Aviles 3
Kila 2-2.5

Pitching
SP MVP: Luke Hochevar 4.00 ERA Range
BP MVP outside Joakim Soria:
Royals ROY: Mike Montgomery

I picked the record I did because I believe this season will go similarly to the 2008season with the Royals struggling at first but by midseason finding a good rythem with a dominant bullpen leading to a solid 2nd half of the season.

1. Luke Hochevar 4.00 ERA Range I think Luke will step up with improved defense behind him putting together is best season to date. Hoch will be the best starter over the course of the season. WAR 4 range in 185 innings

2. Jeff Francis - I think KC could get a nice stretch out of Francis to start the season while he puts up a similar season to Bruce Chen as last year earning him a ticket out of town at the trade deadline for a team looking for postseason experience. 4.50 ERA Range in about 100-125 innings 1 WAR

3. Kyle Davies - More of the same from Davies, no reason to expect anything different than what he's done over the last couple of seasons. 5.25 ERA around 2 WAR in 180 innings

4. Bruce Chen - Back to life back to reality for Bruce 5.50 ERA Range demoted prior to the All Star Break

5. Vin Mazzaro - 4.75 ERA Range for Vin not what we wanted in return for DDJ. 150-175 innings and

Mike Montgomery- A lefty that hits 97 with a good curve and change up will get into the rotation by the All Star break taking over for Chen. He'll struggle at first as most rookies do but by the end of the season will look like a figurehead at the top of the rotation for a long time. 4.25 ERA Range approx.

Bullpen
Aaron Crow - Struggles at first but settles into the 3rd or 4th best BP guy. By midseason he takes over as the long man and swingman and start to compete for a rotation spot in '12

Nate Adcock - I don't like his chances once the lights kick on. He hasn't missed many bats and reminds me of O'Sullivan.

Sean O'Sullivan - More of the same out of O'Sullivan

Jeremy Jeffress - Fb just a bit too straight to succeed for me.

Tim Collins- the funky lefty will workout just fine for the Royals quickly becoming the regular vs lefties and working into a 7th inning role while taking over as the 8th inning guy for Tejeda when he is traded.

Robinson Tejeda - Hard to see Tejeda not matching what he has done each of his last two seasons. McClure has been able to right the ship everytime he has any falters. I do think this is the season the Royals trade him at the deadline though perhaps a Tejeda and one of the OF in a package.

Joakim Soria - He'll keep doing what he does 35+ saves in too few of innings.

Look it's easy to look at this roster and say the Royals will hover around 65 wins or so and I could just as easily make that case as what I predicted. The Royals are an organization currently that has a positive outlook on themselves and they've eliminated the players who have a negative picture of the past organization which to me is huge. Can I quantify that it a number of wins? No I can't but I do think it matters, I've seen too many people in my life with talent in a number of fields that just didn't reach their potential because of their attitude.

Predicting the 25 Man Roster

It's getting closer with approximately 21 days until pitchers and catchers report and around 47 days until I make it down to Phoenix/Surprise myself. I thought I'd make and early prediction on how the 25 man roster will breakdown.

Pitchers(12)
SP Luke Hochevar (LOCK)-Could have breakout yr with better infield defense
SP Jeff Francis (LOCK)-Love his control
SP Vin Mazzaro (LOCK)
SP Kyle Davies (LOCK)
SP Bruce Chen (LOCK)
RP Joakim Soria (LOCK)-Best closer not named Mariano
RP Robinson Tejeda (LOCK)- Outstanding after April in '10
RP Blake Wood (LOCK)- Starting getting K's in Aug/Sep
RP Sean O'Sullivan
RP Kanekoa Texeira-
RP Greg Holland- Victim of .400+ BABIP last yr, 11.1 K/9 in '10
RP Tim Collins- 9.3 K/9 @ AAA was the low of his career

I think Sean O'Sullivan or Kanekoa Texeira will fall victim to Louis Coleman by midseason. Once Coleman is added there is a possibility that this could be the best Royals bullpen has looked since 2008 when they had Ron Mahay, Ramon Ramirez and Leo Nunez getting the ball to Soria. That group was only together for one season where this group (Wood, Holland, Collins and Coleman) could be leading to Soria saves for a few seasons.

Infield (8)
C Brayan Pena (LOCK)- Gets his shot to show he can be a #1
C Lucas May
1b Billy Butler (LOCK)- 36 HR 96 doubles last 2 yrs
Dh Kila Ka'aihue (LOCK)- .878 OPS in Sept is what we were lookin for
2b Mike Aviles (LOCK)- From Apr-Aug 14 XB hits Sept 13 XB hits
SS Alcides Escobar (LOCK)-2010 .264 BABIP
3b Wilson Betemit
UT Chris Getz-His light hitting days are numbered w/Gio in Omaha

Mike Aviles health adds to the versatility of this group. His ability to play a passable 2b,SS and 3b allows KC to carry three 1b/DH (Kila, Butler, Betemit). Moustakas shoud be up by June or July leaving the loser of the Kila/Betemit competition as the probable odd man out.

Outfield (5)
RF Jeff Franceour (LOCK)
LF Alex Gordon
CF Lorenzo Cain
4OF Melky Cabrerra
OF Gregor Blanco

This is definitely the hardest group to determine. While Frenchy and Gordon are locks I don't think any of that can be said about the rest of the group. I give Melky and Blanco a headstart over Maier just based on where they come from organizationally. Should that be the case? No, definitely not, I think Mitch Maier is every bit as good if not better than both. But I think the point of the new roster is to purge the organization of the past and he unfortunately is apart of the past.

Royals sign Jeff Francis

GMDM made a solid signing today inking Jeff Francis to a one year 2M+ incentives deal. Francis a lefty from the Rockies organization is trying to rebuild his career after shoulder problems kept him out in 2009 and part of 2010.

A few positives come with this deal.
The Royals didn't overpay.

Francis has some upside to him as opposed to a Kevin Millwood who would be nothing more than a Jason Kendall on the mound.

If Francis proves to be healthy and back to his old form the Royals should be able to turn him at the deadline for a nice prospect or two.

This should hold back the front office from starting Duffy or Teaford on the major league 25 man to begin the season. Teaford was hit hard in his one AAA start and as Edgar Osuna proved last season the Pacific Coast League can prove to be quite challenging as compared to AA. If Duffy, Teaford or other lefty prove to be ready for the majors early they perhaps can learn a thing or two from Francis while he is in KC.

The Royals continue to not spend big in a non-contend season. GMDM has seemingly learned from past mistakes and continues to sign contracts that will not limit the payroll of the future.

All in all a nice limited downside type of deal.

The Royals also inked Luke Hochevar and Alex Gordon to one year deals for 1.76 and 1.4M(100K incentive) respectively. Hoch was given no raise while Gordon received a modest 300K raise. The Royals continue to win by avoiding arbitration with their players. Billy Butler, Kyle Davies and Robinson Tejeda remain the only unsigned arbitration eligible Royals left.

Next up: Why I'm bullish on GMDM.

Countdown Deadline

GMDMs objectives should be simple:

#1 Find Kila Ka'aihue At Bats- KC goes into next season without a bonafide DH on the roster due to the Jose Guillen contract expiration and GMDM needs to find out if Kila Ka'aihue is a real option. If GMDM can unload Guillen at the deadline then Kila could appear in as many as 58 games, earning in the neighborhood of 260 ab's which should be enough to see if the AAA stats translate or not.

#2 Bring back prospects- GMDM already has done that with the additions of O'Sullivan, May, Pimentel and Smith but any other additions are worth it. There are going to be casualties in the prospect rise and any other troops GMDM can bring in will help soften the blow.

#3 Adding positional prospects- So far GMDM has concentrated on pitching but he needs to look at the possibilities of adding more positional prospects because the guys in the system are far from locks. Just taking a quick peak at the prospects at positions at the upper levels one can see some shaky ground up the middle.

C Pina, May
1b Hosmer, Kila, Robinson
2b Giavotella, Bianchi
SS Bianchi, Falu
3b Moustakas
RF Parraz
LF Lough, Smith, Orlando
CF Dyson, Lough, Robinson, Orlando

There doesn't appear to be much coming up the middle although Giavotella has had a good second half offensively, his defense is still very bad though. Who knows how Bianchi recovers from Tommy John and Falu profiles as a Bloomquist type not an everyday player. The outfielders look more like a group of 4th outfielders with perhaps Lough being the best of the group if he can build on his more patient approach in July. 1b and 3b look to be set if Moose can hit at AAA while Colon and Myers aren't far behind and could be the starters of the future at SS and C/RF. GMDM needs to see if he can add some positional prospects at the upper levels the way he added Pina, Parraz and Smith the last couple of seasons.

#4 Trade Joakim Soria- Anytime a team like Kansas City has an opportunity to trade a closer and redirect the direction of their franchise they should really consider it. Montero is on the board for the Yankees if they add one more upper tier prospect to the mix or maybe Brett Gardner then GMDM should do it. He'll have 2 to 3 years to find a replacement closer since KC isn't looking at being in the mix again for a division until 2012 or 2013. After seeing what the Nats pulled for 1+ year of Matt Capps, Montero and Gardner doesn't seem out of line.

#5 Giving Alex and Maier playing time- Need to move Ankiel it appears to do this and that seems unlikely but GMDM needs to see if these guys are real starter options for next season. I believe Maier could be a 2 WAR player in CF which is definitely worth him starting everyday in KC but Gordon's return is bringing up more and more question marks. Alex's offense is the worry to me as he has shown no pop since his callup maybe he just needs more time to recover but his good second half in '08 is getting farther and farther away while career path is looking more like Mark Teahen's, one good half of baseball and below average play besides that.

I don't expect all of this to get done in fact just a Jose Guillen trade would be enough as long as Kila was called up but anything more on top of that would help clear up the foggy 2011.

Alex Up, Kila waits, DDJ Out 8 Days left

8 Days Left til the deadline and DDJ is officially out for the season. Maybe this isn't so bad because the Royals can look to move Scott Podsednik instead of DDJ, Pods definitely hasn't been a bad signing in fact one of GMDMs better ones but if he can return something worth while do it. DDJs injury also allows the Royals to take a look at Alex Gordon in the outfield. The games I've seen Alex he has decent movement in the outfield not great coverage but playable while he also has a very good arm. Hopefully this move is made to have Alex play OF as opposed to 3b.

The deadline is approaching the best chip the Royals have is out for the season and the roster continually gets aligned with dead soldiers like Guillen and Ankiel. The Royals need to make some moves to give this team a chance to compete in the future, one of those moves needs to be bringing up Kila Ka'aihue to see if he is a legit DH candidate. Unfortunately I just don't see that coming soon unless JoGui can get traded soon.

Rumor- Royals interested in Franceour. This is idiotic and makes absolutely no sense unless the Royals are just looking to unload JoGui and even at that I'm not interested in Frenchy blocking playing time from Gordon, Maier or anyone.

Trade Deadline Countdown 11 Days and counting

Callaspo for O'Sullivan plus
The newest rumor of the day is that the Royals reportedly turned down a offer from the Los Angeles Angels that featured Sean O'Sullivan and a "fringe" prospect for Alberto Callaspo. When I first saw this deal I wasn't really interested in it and then I thought to myself O'Sullivan has been pitching in the PCL West which is the equivalent of the Coors stadium league and while his peripherals weren't great he could probably pitch to the level of Brian Bannister. O'Sullivan would be cheaper than Bannister and the Yankees expressed interest in one Brian Bannister last season maybe the Royals could also turn Bannister into a prospect at the level of O'Sullivan say Zach McCallister or someone at that level. Overall they would take some money off the payroll by trading Banni and Callaspo and possibly add a starter and a reliever in O'Sullivan and McCallister while also adding a fringe prospect. KC would probably be forced to move Alex back to 3rd base or start Aviles there if they are really that against Gordon playing the infield but is that really that bad a thing for a team that should be focusing more on 2012 than 2010? In the end it doesn't look like it matters as GMDM turned down the deal and he doesn't appear ready to blow up this god awful team just yet.

* By the way Mike Moustakas hit his first HR a deep shot off Memphis Redbird starter Lance Lynn.

First Half Tops and Bottoms

Omaha Royals
Top
The play of Kila Ka'aihue and Alex Gordon has been outstanding leading the ORoyals to only a game back of first place as of June 18th. They currently are ranked #2 and #3 in OPS in the league while Alex has learned to play a functional outfield.
Bottom
The fact that the two of them are playing in Omaha is quite ridiculous and should be remedied very soon.

NW Arkansas Naturals
Top
Mike Moustakas and Mike Montgomery didn't take long to flex their muscles at the AA level. While both have fallen victim to injuries the ability they have shown is a bright sign to all Royal fans.
Bottom
The struggles of 2009 1st round pick Aaron Crow are a bit troubling as he has done a solid job creating groundballs at a near 4-1 rate but has been victim to the longball early and low strikeout totals. Johnny Giavotella's lack of power is also troubling as he is only slugging .355.

Wilmington Blue Rocks
Top
Eric Hosmer and John Lamb have shown why they are top level Royal prospects. Hosmer came out of the gates on fire clearing thru April with a .421 BA. While he cooled in May to .301 and a .788 OPS he has heated back up to close the 1st half with a .362 BA and .978 OPS so far this month. The power isn't evident yet but considering the difficulty of hitting in Frawley stadium we can wait until Arkansas to get worried yet. Lambs performance at Burlington and so far in Wilmington has been terrific adding his name to that of Monty and Duffy as possible stud Lefties.
Bottom
Nothing extremely surprising or disappointing Tim Melville's name would definitely fit the bill here if he hadn't seemed to have turned it around this month. To me the the most disappointing thing is that Noel Arguelles won't make it to Wilmington to pitch this season.

Burlington Bees
Top
Wil Myers after the usual slow April has been fantastic prompting me and a few others to think about moving his position. While it might be too early for that this kid can flat out hit. He's improved every month and if it wasn't for his struggling glove would definitely be pushing for a promotion
Bottom
The injury of Kelvin Herrera is a tough one on the Royals system. While he isn't a top name on the Royals prospect charts he definitely has an explosive arm and a knowledge of pitching that could move him thru the system. His arm injury might result in either a move to the pen or a move out of baseball all together, let's hope for neither.

May Minor League Players of the Month

Burlington Bees
Wil Myers The third round 2009 draftee had an excellent second month of Single A ball hitting a robust .330/.459/.500 with a 21/17 BB to So ratio. In comparison Moose and Hos had .835 and .905 OPS numbers during their Bee seasons in May.

Wilmington Blue Rocks
Salvador Perez- The 20 yr old catcher had an impressive May putting together a .867 OPS while hitting 3 HRs to equal his previous minor league total.

NW Arkansas Naturals
Mike Moustakas YAHTZEE !!! For as good as Hosmer was in April Moustakas was even better in May. The former 2nd Pick crushed everything he saw to the tune of .393/.486/.775. There were even rumors of a premature promotion. If Moustakas continues this type of hot hitting a September call up is almost assured.

Omaha Royals
Alex Gordon- Who would've thought that Alex would still be tooling around in the minors in 2010. Right or wrong he is where he is and it's quite refreshing to see him still putting in the effort. He is playing a decent outfield from what I have heard and the one game I saw and is hitting the ball the way we all expect at AAA. His May stats of .355/.496/.667 are really too good for him to spend much more time there but I'm sure GMDM will have him sit on the bus thru the CWS road trip the way he did to Billy a couple seasons ago.

Overall this season the minor leaguers look incredible. Montgomery and Lamb are overpowering hitters while Moustakas, Hosmer, Kila, Gordon and Myers are knockin the ball around consistently. Even Salvador Perez is showing off his skills behind the plate as well as at it. From the sounds of Rany's latest article is sounds as if Duffy is coming back to join the party, let's hope that is true.

Alex Gordon to Right Field

Went to my first Omaha Royals game in quite a while today (5/31) to watch Alex play right field. From what I saw he appeared to get good reads off the bat, has a cannon for an arm and possesses average range out there. If KC does decide to keep Alex this move to right field was an intelligent one as it allows David DeJesus to be moved back to left while allowing Alberto and Moustakas opportunities at third base. Alex didn't get a whole lot of work catching a few flyballs but did show off his arm unleashing a throw to third base that was slightly off line but got to third in a hurry without a hop. He definitely has the arm for the position and has enough range to make it work. His plate approach was professional as always and he hit the ball solidly to the tune of a 1 for 3 day.

Hopeful 2010 ML Roster
2-Kendall(Stuck with this one)
3-Butler
4-Aviles
5-Callaspo
6-Betancourt(Another mistake)
7-DeJesus
8-Maier
9-Gordon
DH-Kila
Bench
Getz
Falu Inf/Outfiled utility
Parraz or Lough 4th OF
Pina C

The reluctance of playing Brayan Pena probably opens up a spot for Manny Pina and considering his advanced defensive game he is probably a better fit for a 25 game catcher. Irving Falu can do everything Willie Bloomquist can do and probably better as well as being much cheaper. Parraz or Lough are probably not the answer as of yet to the 4th OF as I'm sure GMDM will look to bring in someone to fit into the OF. Kila is definitely worthy of an opportunity to DH and split with Billy at 1b but we'll find out if GMDM is all talk this offseason about giving him an opportunity.