Thursday, March 31, 2011

Season Predictions White Sox win it all

I could easily toss out a Philly-Boston/NY World Series which is what everyone else is doing but I thought I'd go a different way and predict a scenario in which a different team wins it all.

AL East
Boston
NY
Tampa Bay
Toronto
Baltimore

AL Central
Chicago
Minnesota
Detroit
Kansas City
Cleveland

AL West
Texas
Oakland
LA Angeles
Seattle

Wild Card NY Yankees

Boston beats Texas
Chicago beats NY Yankees
Chicago beats Boston

AL MVP Kevin Youkilis
AL CY Young CJ Wilson
AL Jackie Robinson Award Kyle Drabek

NL East
Atlanta
Philadelphia
Florida
Washington
NY Mets

NL Central
Cincinnati
St Louis
Chicago
Milwaukee
Houston
Pittsburgh

NL West
Colorado
San Francisco
LA Dodgers
San Diego

Wild Card Philadelphia

Cincinnati beats Atlanta
Philadelphia beats Colorado
Philadelphia beats Cincinnati

NL MVP Jason Heyward
NL CY Young Roy Halladay
NL Jackie Robinson Award Freddie Freeman

Chicago shocks the world and beats Philadelphia in 6 games.

Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Putting the finishing touch on the Royals Winter



Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus let out a few more articles on the bright Royals future today. Those features wrap up a winter of unparalleled coverage for a team coming off yet another losing season. I definitely can't think of a time that a teams minor league players have been so extensively studied by pretty much every sports publication in this country. It sure has been fun to read, listen and watch what people have to say about these young Royals but even a prospect hound like myself has grown tired of it. I'm ready to watch them !

The final piece for Royals minor league fun will be the Royals Futures Game Saturday and as you would expect I will be there checking out the fun. After that it's opening day at Werner Park followed by a trip to Kane County April 18th and the 19th. Tweet me up if you are out at any of these events. See ya Saturday !

Tuesday, March 29, 2011

Royals Nation unhappy with the final roster moves.

The Royals finished up with another win today their 20th of the spring while also finalizing their major league roster. As most people expected Coleman, Mendoza, Zach Miner, Irvin Falu and Lance Zawadzki will all be reassigned with Vin Mazzaro to minor league camps. Coleman, Mendoza and Zawadzki pushed hard going to the final day of spring but the fact that they weren't on the 40 man roster hurt their chances to break with the team. I expect Zawadzki and Coleman to get a shot at the bigs prior to the end of the year if they perform in Omaha.

Prior to these moves the Royals picked up Matt Treanor from the Rangers and added him to the 25 man roster while leaving Lucas May exposed. There are many in Royal fandom that have a problem with this and while Treanor may not be an average catcher in the bigs assuming that Lucas May who has just one average season at AAA is a huge loss is somewhat funny. I saw May quite a few times last season and he seemed like a straight fastball hitter that would get exposed by breaking stuff in the majors while also being a below average defensive catcher. I'm not saying I'm excited by this move but on the other hand I see the writing on the wall and this Salvador Perez's job and pitching staff for that matter in 2012 with a possibility of picking up a catcher via free agency if he struggles this season. I would rather the young bullpen guys had a chance to work with a experience vet like Treanor in the meantime.

The other moves that caused waves were adding Aaron Crow to the bullpen and taking Jarrod Dyson to KC while exposing Gregor Blanco to waivers. I had already expressed how I liked the Crow decision prior to KC making it here so I'll address the Dyson decision instead. Blanco is a nice player but has little to no longterm future with this team so keeping him isn't a huge addition while losing him isn't big either. Dyson is 26 going on 27 so the chance of him finding some kind of playable power to allow him to be a everyday centerfielder is asking alot especially after 1200+ minor league ABs. He is what he is a speedy defensive outfielder/pinch runner. If the Royals have a upside speedy centerfielder who could develop some pop it's Derrick Robinson in AA not Jarrod Dyson.

I don't understand the uproar about Blanco, when was he supposed to play after Cain was called up? His only available playing time at this point would be if Frenchy and Alex both fell off the canyons edge of performance something even I don't believe will happen with both of them. Maier is the better player and Blanco out of the fold is good to me in case Frenchy or Alex fold then KC might have to give David Lough a look as opposed to running Maier and Blanco both out there everyday. Lough has more upside than Gregor and Mitch and if he performs in Omaha should be in line for a spot after Cain. Blanco was given an edge to win a spot in the spring and he just didn't take hold of it.

The hyperbole is funny that has been tossed out there, these moves haven't stopped or slowed the process these were players that had little to no future with the Royals and losing them now isn't causing any losses to the huge talent pool that already exist.

Monday, March 28, 2011

2011 Kansas City Royals Prediction

It's prediction time folks ! As a blogger about the Royals I am obliged to write my prediction of what I think will happen this season so readers can requote me later to tell me what I'm wrong about. So here you go I'm putting my pinky finger on the cutting board with a bucket of ice standing by.



2011 Record 75-87 4th Place

Hitting MVP: Billy Butler .320+ 25 HR 45 2b
Defensive MVP: Alcides Escober
Positional ROY: Mike Moustakas

DH/1b Billy Butler- I believe Butler is in line for his first .900+ OPS season. He's going to prove that the contract extension was a good decision despite splitting time at DH and 1b I think he'll put up a 3.5-4 WAR season. That's not a big improvement in WAR but I think he'll play quite a few games fewer at 1b this season.

1b/DH Kila Ka'aihue- I doubt Kila reaches BP's projections but I do think he'll be better than what KC has seen out of the DH position in the past. Somewhere in that .825-.840 OPS region with 20 HR and better defense than what Billy can provide at 1b. WAR Value 2-2.5

2b Chris Getz- I don't believe in Getz's ability to hit much. I think he'll hit his way out of Kansas City within a couple months posting a sub .600 OPS along the way and making room for Aviles to take over the spot when Moose is ready to come up.

SS Alcides Escobar- Spring training home runs are generally to be ignored but I saw one Escobar hit off the Reds while in Arizona and I came away pretty impressed. It wasn't a windy night or unusually warm but it was a high semi deep home run to left center that a light hitting SS in the TPJ mold wouldn't be able to hit. I'm not expecting Escobar to put up huge offensive numbers in KC but I think he'll put up better numbers than we expect. My guess OPS .750 range with plus plus defense 3-4 WAR.

3B Mike Aviles- Aviles will do what he does hit above .300 and mix in a little pop while moving to 2b when Moose is ready to go. OPS .800 range

Mike Moustakas- I think Mike will get off to a slow start but adjust and hit 10-15 HR's and get people excited for next season. Many in the prospect field are scared of Mike's patience which they should be but what most like is his strength combined with a flat plane swing that stays in the zone a long time that will allow him to hit for a decent average (.275-.300) and also allows him to hit any type of pitch once he's adjusted after seeing it. OPS .775 Range.

Wilson Betemit .750 OPS very limited playing time with Kila and Butler playing well.

Rookies to play this season: Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer(Sept.), Lance Zawadzki(Util when Getz goes down) and Johnny Giavotella(Sept.)

C Jason Kendall/Matt Treanor - More of the same out of the catching position for the Royals. Kendall and Treanor's performance will probably be interchangeable and will play too much and while putting up a sub .600 OPS.

C Brayan Pena - Pena would like the Royals to signa a longterm deal but that's not coming with Salvador on the way. Pena will struggle again at the plate and behind it as he gets sporadic playing time.

LF Alex Gordon- This is the tough one, I've watched Alex for a long time and he's got all the skill in his body to get it done but I don't think he has what it take confidencewise to as he put it "dominate". I think he'll put up numbers similar to what he did as a rookie .725 OPS range with average defense.

CF Melky Cabrerra- I think GMDM is hoping to have Melky get out of the gates fast start so they can flip him similarly to what they did with Scott Podsednik when Lorenzo Cain is ready to go. We'll see how it plays out but I think he'll play below average defense in CF while hitting in the .740 OPS range.

RF Jeff Franceour- Every Non-Royal fan rejoiced at the signing of Frenchy the day it happened and they will be treated to exactly what most expect of him a subpar performance. .700 OPS Range with 15 HRs and better defense than he has played the last couple years due to being leaner.

Lorenzo Cain- Cain will take over for Melky after the trading deadline and provide a similar OPS to Melky but with plus defense.
Mitch Maier .700 OPS Range
Jarrod Dyson .680 OPS range

Rookies to play: Lorenzo Cain, David Lough(Sept)
WAR Leaders
Escobar 4
Butler 3.5-4
Aviles 3
Kila 2-2.5

Pitching
SP MVP: Luke Hochevar 4.00 ERA Range
BP MVP outside Joakim Soria:
Royals ROY: Mike Montgomery

I picked the record I did because I believe this season will go similarly to the 2008season with the Royals struggling at first but by midseason finding a good rythem with a dominant bullpen leading to a solid 2nd half of the season.

1. Luke Hochevar 4.00 ERA Range I think Luke will step up with improved defense behind him putting together is best season to date. Hoch will be the best starter over the course of the season. WAR 4 range in 185 innings

2. Jeff Francis - I think KC could get a nice stretch out of Francis to start the season while he puts up a similar season to Bruce Chen as last year earning him a ticket out of town at the trade deadline for a team looking for postseason experience. 4.50 ERA Range in about 100-125 innings 1 WAR

3. Kyle Davies - More of the same from Davies, no reason to expect anything different than what he's done over the last couple of seasons. 5.25 ERA around 2 WAR in 180 innings

4. Bruce Chen - Back to life back to reality for Bruce 5.50 ERA Range demoted prior to the All Star Break

5. Vin Mazzaro - 4.75 ERA Range for Vin not what we wanted in return for DDJ. 150-175 innings and

Mike Montgomery- A lefty that hits 97 with a good curve and change up will get into the rotation by the All Star break taking over for Chen. He'll struggle at first as most rookies do but by the end of the season will look like a figurehead at the top of the rotation for a long time. 4.25 ERA Range approx.

Bullpen
Aaron Crow - Struggles at first but settles into the 3rd or 4th best BP guy. By midseason he takes over as the long man and swingman and start to compete for a rotation spot in '12

Nate Adcock - I don't like his chances once the lights kick on. He hasn't missed many bats and reminds me of O'Sullivan.

Sean O'Sullivan - More of the same out of O'Sullivan

Jeremy Jeffress - Fb just a bit too straight to succeed for me.

Tim Collins- the funky lefty will workout just fine for the Royals quickly becoming the regular vs lefties and working into a 7th inning role while taking over as the 8th inning guy for Tejeda when he is traded.

Robinson Tejeda - Hard to see Tejeda not matching what he has done each of his last two seasons. McClure has been able to right the ship everytime he has any falters. I do think this is the season the Royals trade him at the deadline though perhaps a Tejeda and one of the OF in a package.

Joakim Soria - He'll keep doing what he does 35+ saves in too few of innings.

Look it's easy to look at this roster and say the Royals will hover around 65 wins or so and I could just as easily make that case as what I predicted. The Royals are an organization currently that has a positive outlook on themselves and they've eliminated the players who have a negative picture of the past organization which to me is huge. Can I quantify that it a number of wins? No I can't but I do think it matters, I've seen too many people in my life with talent in a number of fields that just didn't reach their potential because of their attitude.

Saturday, March 26, 2011

Aaron Crow and thinning the roster

Last season Aaron Crow showed up to spring training with big time expectations by Royals fans. He did everything in his power to meet those expectations during the spring even causing some to think he should be given a job in the bullpen. Last season that would've been too much to ask for Aaron in my opinion as a guy who sat out over a year of baseball but now I think it's time to give him a shot.

Crow's change up didn't do much progressing last season and while I don't have anything against the minor league staff I would like to see how Crow's change developed after working with Bob McClure for a full season. Aaron definitely has the two pitch combo to succeed out of the bullpen. His fastball according to pitchf/x versus Oakland this spring was 94-96 with plenty of movement (4-6 degrees) while his slider was 86-89 with 6 to 8 degrees in movement. That's plenty of velocity and enough movement that if Crow throws strikes he'll succeed in the pen and give the Royals a swing and miss power who can also create groundballs, something they don't have in their other bullpen talents.

The biggest part of this scenario is working with McClure who I think is a above average pitching coach and has done wonders with the pitchers he's had in the pen so far. McClure on multiple occassions (Tejeda, Greinke and Farnsworth) has taken failed or struggling starters and turned them into effective relievers who have at least entered the conversation as possible rotation guys while also helping one become a Cy Young winner. I'm quite confident a year with Bob in the pen would do as much for Crow's career as a starter as anything he would learn this year in AA or AAA.

Couple other notes the Royals released Aaron Hartsock, Scott Kelley, Justin Figueroa and Tom Zebroski this weekend after trading Gaby Hernandez and Alex Caldera earlier. The Royals also picked up John Whittleman from the Rangers.

Whittleman isn't much of a prospect as a 25 year old heading to High A after not posting much of a line last season in AA but I assume he is a great guy and will help fill roster at High A Wilmington.

Cut day is coming soon I think we are gonna see some interesting decisions by the Royals as they decided to send Lorenzo Cain down today.

Friday, March 25, 2011

Mike Sweeney Retires a Royal awaits his Royal HOF spot

Good stuff on part of the organization today as Mike Sweeney signed a one day contract and retired as a Royal the way he should. Sweeney was a constant role model and seemed to be a class act on the field and off it despite plenty of criticism by fans and media alike.

Sweeney according to Baseball reference finishes 7th All Time in Royal history in Career WAR PA
1. George Brett 85.0 11624
2. Amos Otis 42.3 7969
3. Willie Wilson 35.7 7302
4. Frank White 26.9 8467
5. Hal McRae 26.1 7361
6. Carlos Beltran 24.6 3512
7. Mike Sweeney 22.2 527

5th in Offensive WAR PA
1. George Brett 79.5 11624
2. Amos Otis 45.8 7969
3. Hal McRae 26.4 7361
4. Willie Wilson 25.8 7302
5. Mike Sweeney 23.3 5278

2nd in OPS to Danny Tartabull, 2nd in Adjusted OPS+ to George Brett and 2nd again to Brett in Home Runs. Simply put Mike Sweeney in a few years will find his jersey hanging in the Royals Hall of Fame as a 1st ballot Royal Hall of Famer. A fitting career end to a Hall of Fame type of person.

Revisiting Playboy 2005



As some of you may know I have a small company in Council Bluffs/Omaha and in my offices I share a bathroom with the landlord who has an office in the building. While I've been using the bathroom for months one day I looked above the cabinet for some untold reason and discovered a couple Playboy magazines peaking over the edge.

Being a man I looked around (duh no one else is in the bathroom) and was compelled to grab the Playboy magazines to discover what great articles are to be seen on the inside of the pages and to my surprise what should I find but a preview of the 2005 baseball season. While many Royal fans remember the 2004 and 2005 seasons as probably the two worst seasons in Royal history both recordwise but also because of the promise 2003 brought I thought it would be fun to revisit what a non-sport publication thought at the time.

Last Season 58-104 Last place, 34 games out. The Royals used a franchise-record 58 players, one shy of the major league mark set by Cleveland and San Diego in 2002.

Off-season focus: They splurged on free agents a year ago and went from a contender in 2003 to having the worst record in franchise histroy. So they regrouped and committed to building from within the farm system.

Who was this farm system rebuild with? Buck and Teahen? I've always thought the idea that Baird looked to rebuild with the farm system was a total joke. The guy didn't draft well, buy international talent or even use all the minor league levels to develop players. Whoever bought into Baird's idea of development wasn't watching closely.

In-season prognosis: The Royals have the potential to suprise-not by winning the division but by making everyone else uncomfortable. They have young talent and are excited about the potential of third baseman Mark Teahen, who came from Oakland. How much they improve will depend on how well Runelvys Hernandez rebounds from elbow surgery and whether righty Denny Bautista can deliver.

Of course the Royals didn't make anyone uncomfortable that season by setting a new low mark going 56-106.

Welcome to town: Outfielder Terrence Long was excess baggage in San Diego, but the Royals see him as a much needed left-handed bat who will respond to a return to regular duty.

Terrence Long was just another name in the group of failed veteran pickups by Baird. Guys he would attempt to grab onto just before they left baseball. Baird's OF picks of Gonzalez, Long and Sanders over inhouse players like Diaz and Ibanez were just a couple reasons this franchise reached incredible lows in '04 and '05.

This preview was written by Tracy Rigolsby while Christina Kahrl wrote some bits and pieces as well, it's always fun to look back and review what people thought at the time no matter how painful that season was. There was also the nice Mike Sweeney little interview with one of the following quotes "I was there when we lost 100 games. I was there when we came up just short of winning the division. It would be sweeter to win in Kansas City, having gone through the tought times." Rigolsby took it pretty easy on the Royals as I believe most thought they were going to end up where they did but he shined as much hope as he possibly could.

While the baseball intro doesn't quite live up to the James Spader interview(I'm a Boston Legal fan), Hunter S. Thompson last words or Suburban Bombshells Naked comparison of Desperate Housewives it was definitely fun to discover in my office but unfortunately I won't be reviewing the October 2008 issue that is also above the cabinet.


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