Sunday, March 7, 2010

Reviewing a BA Top 20 League List (2005 Cal League) Starring Billy Butler

As a huge fan of Baseball America and overall prospect junkie I thought I would take an opportunity during a slight downtime and review some of their Top 20 League lists. My first review is the 2005 Top 20 Prospects in the California League. Why start there? Billy Butler the leader of the Royals of course, why else? Billy had an amazing year at High Desert as a 19 yo he obviously must have been the top prospect in the league. Try again #5

BA 2005 TOP 20 Cal League Prospects w/Team at the time Fangraphs WAR Value
#1 Brandon Wood SS (Angels) -0.7 86 Games
#2 Stephen Drew SS (Diamondbacks) 5.6 WAR 496 Games
3. Howie Kendrick SS(Angels) 6.2 WAR 357 Games
4. Ian Stewart 3B (Rockies) 2.7 WAR 263 Games
5. Billy Butler LF (Royals)- 3.1 WAR 375 Games
6. Daric Barton 1b (A's)- 2.2 WAR 212 Games
7. Edinson Volquez SP (Rangers)- 4.8 WAR 62 Games/58 Starts
8. Thomas Diamond SP (Rangers)-No Pro Action
9. Adam Jones SS (Mariners)- 4.1 WAR 324 Games
10. Eddy Martinez-Esteve OF (Giants) No Pro Action
11. John Danks SP (Rangers) 8.8 WAR 91 Starts
12. Asdrubal Cabrera SS (Mariners) 5.4 WAR 290 Games
13. Chris Ianetta C (Rockies) 6.5 285 Games
14. Miguel Montero C (D-Backs) 4.4 288 Games
15. Ubaldo Jimenez RHP (Rockies) 11.1 83 Starts
16. Nate Schierholtz OF (Giants) 1.8 174 Games
17. George Kottaras C (Padres)
18. Jim Miller RHP (Rockies)
19. Juan Morillo RHP (Rockies)
20. Chris Lubanski OF (Royals)

ReRank Based on WAR Value
1. Ubaldo Jimenez- Rockies
2. John Danks- White Sox
3. Chris Ianetta-Rockies
4. Howie Kendrick-Angels
5. Stephen Drew-DBacks
6. Asdrubal Cabrera-Indians
7. Edinson Volquez-Reds
8. Miguel Montero-DBacks
9. Adam Jones-Orioles
10. Billy Butler- Royals
11. Ian Stewart- Rockies
12. Daric Barton A's
13. Brandon Wood-Angels

What a difference playing time makes. Wood's career could have turned out quite differently if David Glass had allowed the Mike Sweeney proposed trade to go through. He instead has languished in an organization that felt he couldn't handle the middle infield thus logging 317 games in AAA where he has crushed pitching to the tune of a .902 OPS and 76 Hr's. He'll finally get his opportunity to prove he was worth the wait as he'll get to start at 3b this season. As for the rest of this list how many teams would trade most of this list for the #9 and 10 ranked WAR players currently? Jones was an All Star and Gold Glove winner(Hello Franklin Gutierrez) in '09 while Billy Butler had a breakout offensive season with 51 Doubles and 21 Hrs the type of season BA scouts envisioned. Jimenez is a fringe #1 starter while Volquez was solid in '08 but has experienced arm issues and underwent TJ surgery in '09. Danks might be the most consistent of the pitching core while having the lowest upside. He should be able to be a solid #3 starter type for sometime and build on his 91 starts having a decent and long career. Danks was the youngest of the Rangers DVD crew (Diamond-Volquez-Danks) but has proven to be the most solid of the young hurlers while none of the three made it up with the Rangers.

As I do more and more of these we'll keep a list of most successful list based on a totally ludicrous value system that I put together.

BA Percentage 13 (6.5 pts) Major Leaguers, 1 (0.25pt) Fringe Type(Wood) out of 20 Prospects=6.75 pts

2 All Star selections = 2 Pts

0 Pts Franchise Players currently=3 possible Franchise Players (Butler, Jones, Jimenez)= 0 Points Currently

2005 Cal League List = 8.75

Franchise Players = 3 Pts

MVPs/CyYoungs = 2 Pts

Allstar Selections =1 Pts

1.0+ War Career equal to .5 Pts

Starter in ML equal to .25 Pts

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